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US recession could be short-lived – Liberum industrials indicator

08 January 2016 | Analyst Insight
US industrials recession

(LONDON) The US recession currently affecting the world’s equipment and machinery makers could prove surprisingly short-lived, exclusive data from the Capital Goods team at independent London-based investment bank Liberum suggests. 

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Liberum’s proprietary monthly Early Cycle Indicator is based on analysis of 20 years of data and it reveals that December 2015 was the second consecutive month when the ratio of U.S. new orders-to-inventories among the world’s metal bashers exceeded 1.10, the highest level since 2014. 

“History shows that orders recover without exception when this happens,” said Daniel Cunliffe, Liberum’s European Capital Goods Analyst. 

The data implies a return to order expansion within six months. 

“We remain bearish on the sector as we expect deflation to continue,” Daniel added. Last year, Liberum’s ECI data underpinned a view that the sector would face a downturn commencing the second quarter of 2015. Institute for Supply Management data indicates that US manufacturing has been in recession since November 2015. 

“We struggle to identify recovery drivers at this stage, but we cannot ignore the strength of the US data, which has led to an industrial order recovery on all seven occasions between 1985 and last year,” Daniel said. 

The Indicator, created by Daniel, weights new orders from the Purchasing Managers Indices versus inventories in Europe (50% of the Index), the US (30%) and China (20%). 

The ECI is 80% correlated with volume growth at giant global industrial firms and can offer a six-to-nine month lead on trends. 

The early cycle refers to the critical period after a recession when companies buy smaller items such as ball bearings or drill bits for products sold, or projects delivered, in the near term. Late cycle refers to major capital expenditure such as factories and power plants that meet rising demand from the early circle.

ABOUT LIBERUM

Liberum is an independently-owned pan European investment bank. The firm’s core activities are research, sales and trading in large, small & mid cap pan-European equities, as well as investment banking and advisory services including IPOs, secondary issues and mergers and acquisitions.

  • Liberum’s team of 43 research analysts cover more than 300 European stocks across nine key sectors
  • Liberum was recognized as the #1 firm in the 2015 Thomson Reuters StarMine Awards for UK & Ireland, achieving the top-three positions across all industries for overall stock picker
  • Liberum is broker to more than 70 listed companies across 20 sectors and has raised £1.6bn for its corporate clients in 2015 YTD
  • The firm was established in 2007, and employs over 160 people in London and New York
  • Further information is available at www.liberum.com.

Read an important disclaimer > here.

Press Enquiries: Redleaf Polhill

Emma Kane 
Amy Williams
Lizzy Chesters

Email: liberum@redleafpr.com

Call: +44 (0)20 7382 4747

The Renewables Infrastructure Group names Liberum as Corporate Broker

22 December 2015 | Corporate brokerships

The Renewables Infrastructure Group Ltd. (Ticker: TRIG LN) has today appointed Liberum as Joint Corporate Broker.

TRIG (1)

TRIG has invested in 36 distinct fully-operating renewable electricity generation assets in the UK, France and the Republic of Ireland. 24 of the assets are onshore wind projects and 12 are solar PV projects, representing aggregate generating capacity of approximately 658MW, with a weighted average operational history of approximately five years.

TRIG entered the FTSE 250 in December 2015.

Click >here for more information on the company.

Press Enquiries: Redleaf Polhill

Email: Liberum@redleafpr.com

Emma Kane 
Amy Williams
Lizzy Chesters

+44 (0)20 7382 4747

New brokerships at Liberum

22 December 2015 | corporate brokerships

Liberum has been appointed as sole corporate broker to power and data cables maker Volex plc (ticker: VLE LN), the latest in a series of recent brokership appointments.

Volex (click > here to find out more about the company) is a leading manufacturer of high-quality cables for products such as Apple TV, Dyson vacuum cleaners and MRI scanners for hospitals. It provides a global solution to customers with exacting design and safety requirements.

In Apple TV, for example, the cable forms part of the unit design and Volex has the specialist manufacturing capabilities to both meet the design requirements and provide global safety certification, mitigating risks posed to Apple’s brand by product malfunction or safety issues.

Marwyn Value Investors

Elsewhere, Marwyn Value Investors (Ticker: MVI LN) has appointed Liberum as its Corporate Broker. It is a long-term public equity investment fund structured as a feeder fund into Marwyn Value Investors LP. It operates a buy-and-build strategy led by industry-leading management teams to create and unlock value. Its current portfolio includes BCA Marketplace, Zegona Communications and Gloo Networks.

Equiniti

Liberum has also been named as Joint Corporate Broker to Equiniti Group Plc (Ticker: EQN LN), a provider of sophisticated technology, administration, processing and payments services that support complex and regulated processes.

Johnston Press

UK media company Johnston Press Plc (Ticker: JPR LN), whose portfolio includes The Scotsman and The Yorkshire Post, has named Liberum as Joint Corporate Broker.

Johnston Press is one of the largest regional newspaper and media publishers in the country and has developed vertical businesses that extend beyond print.  It operates online jobs search platform TheSmartList.co.uk and digital marketing services for small and medium-sized enterprises under the Digital Kitbag name.

Press Enquiries: Redleaf Polhill

Email: Liberum@redleafpr.com

Emma Kane 
Amy Williams
Lizzy Chesters

+44 (0)20 7382 4747

Liberum advises Volution on offer for Energy Technique

11 November 2015 | advisory work

Liberum advises Volution Group plc (Ticker: FAN LN) on its recommended cash offer today for Energy Technique plc (ETQ LN).

Volution (1)

The acquisition is in line with Volution's strategy as it seeks to acquire businesses with well-established brands in heating, ventilation and air conditioning markets where there are favourable structural and regulatory dynamics and with an emphasis on heat recovery systems.

“This proposed acquisition is consistent with our stated strategy of making disciplined and value enhancing acquisitions," Volution CEO Ronnie George said in a statement.

"We believe that ETQ has a strong presence as a supplier to the UK New Build Commercial market which is highly complementary to our strong position in the UK New Build Residential sector," he added.

The transaction is expected to close by the end of the year.

Liberum is sole financial adviser and broker to Volution.

> Volution web site

Liberum contacts:

Peter Tracey, Head of Investment Banking

Neil Patel, Investment Banking

+44 (0) 20 3100 2000

Press Enquiries: Redleaf Polhill

Email: Liberum@redleafpr.com

Emma Kane 
Amy Williams

+44 (0)20 7382 4747

Banks and AltFi: what next?

29 October 2015 | Mentions of Liberum

Liberum Alternative Finance Analyst Cormac Leech explains in this CityAM interview his outlook on the industry and the role traditional banks may play in it.

Click here or below to read interview.

Cormacleech700

"We think there’s enough interest in the sector now that institutional liquidity lines will be provided to P2P platforms that want to go in this direction," he tells the paper.

"And ultimately, as the sector gets bigger, I think the Bank of England will be willing to act as the buyer of last resort, of performing P2P loans in the secondary market at a discount."

Learn more about Liberum's involvement in AltFi > here

Cormac Leech +44 (0) 20 3100 2264

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Press Enquiries: Redleaf Polhill

Email: Liberum@redleafpr.com

Emma Kane 
Amy Williams
Lizzy Chesters

+44 (0)20 7382 4747

Online Direct Lending - a 32-page market overview

28 October 2015 | Analyst Insight

Liberum Alternative Finance's Cormac Leech looks at the size, risks and opportunities in Online Direct Lending in this 32-page market overview. 

Click on the image below to download the document or get PDF > here.

Direct Lending Presentation 1

Read an important disclaimer > here.

A version of this Direct Lending market overview was presented by Cormac at the LendIt conference in London on Oct 20, 2015. It is not investment research or a research recommendation and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy and is for Professional Clients only as such term is defined under the Rules of the Financial Conduct Authority.

Cormac Leech +44 (0) 20 3100 2264

Twitter

Linkedin

Press Enquiries: Redleaf Polhill

Email: Liberum@redleafpr.com

Emma Kane 
Amy Williams
Lizzy Chesters

+44 (0)20 7382 4747